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90th Academy Awards (Predictions and Thoughts)

Who *should* win

Best Picture: The Shape of Water

Best Director: Guillermo Del Toro (The Shape of Water)

Best Actor: Gary Oldman (The Darkest Hour)

Best Actress: Frances McDormand (Three Billboards)

Best Supporting Actor: Richard Jenkins (The Shape of Water)

Best Supporting Actress: Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird)

Best Original Screenplay: Jordan Peele (Get Out)

Best Adapted Screenplay: Dee Rees/Virgil Williams (Mudbound)

Best Editing: Dunkirk

Best Cinematography: Roger Deakins (Blade Runner 2049)

Best Original Score: Jonny Greenwood (Phantom Thread)


My Predictions on the night

Best Picture: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Best Director: Guillermo Del Toro (The Shape of Water)

Best Actor: Gary Oldman (The Darkest Hour)

Best Actress: Frances McDormand (Three Billboards)

Best Supporting Actor: Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards)

Best Supporting Actress: Alison Janney (I, Tonya)

Best Original Screenplay: Jordan Peele (Get Out)

Best Adapted Screenplay: James Ivory (Call me by your name)

Best Editing: Baby Driver

Best Cinematography: Roger Deakins (Blade Runner 2049)

Best Original Score: Alexandre Desplat (The Shape of Water)

Thoughts

* Of the major films involved this year I have seen all 9 Best Picture nominees + All the Money in the World, Mudbound, I Tonya, The Big Sick, Logan, The Disaster Artist, Molly’s Game, Star Wars: The Last Jedi, Blade Runner 2049 and Baby Driver.

* I haven’t seen Coco, The Florida Project, Beauty and the Beast or Roman J Israel Esq.

* Performances I admired that weren’t nominated include Jennifer Lawrence (mother!), James Franco (The Disaster Artist), Jessica Chastain (Molly’s Game), Jason Mitchell (Mudbound), Patrick Stewart (Logan), Sebastian Stan (I, Tonya) and Vicky Krieps (Phantom Thread).

The Shape of Water is my favourite film here.

* It’s a close and open race. It’s been a lot of fun.

Get Out could win Best Picture/Original Screenplay combo.  Spotlight repeat.

* Most of the films in the running are good or very good. No real turkeys.

* Only Phantom Thread & The Shape of Water are truly great.

* …and maybe Get Out.

Three Billboards doesn’t deserve the backlash.

* I suspect Dunkirk was hurt by the summer release date.

*  …and the lack of an emotional core.

* Happy to see Blade Runner 2049 + Dunkirk split the techies.

Phantom Thread for costumes!

* Alison Janney’s a great actress but she had an easy role in I, Tonya and doesn’t deserve to win.

* It’s extraordinary that Victoria & Abdul is deemed worthy of a makeup nomination whilst Guardians of the Galaxy Vol.2 & The Shape of Water aren’t. Bizarre. I’d chuck Thor Ragnarok & Blade Runner in too. Seriously academy…Victoria & Abdul…what…what!!

* No nominations for XXX: The Return of Xander Cage? A travesty.

* Prediction for 2019 – Expect Disney to chuck $$$ at a Black Panther campaign. I expect it’ll sneak into the Best Picture category unless Kevin Feige & Ryan Coogler get caught running a nonce ring.

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